Economy Prediction Markets

Macro prediction markets translate the most-watched economic data releases into binary outcomes. Will the next CPI print come in above 3.0%? Will Q3 GDP be revised higher? Will the Fed deliver a 50 bps cut at the next FOMC? Will the US enter a recession by Q4 next year? Each market settles on a specific BLS, BEA, Fed, or other official data release.

Kayxa hosts macro markets covering Fed rate decisions, CPI and PCE inflation prints, nonfarm payrolls, GDP releases, unemployment rate, PMI, trade policy events (tariffs, trade war escalations), and one-off events like government shutdowns or debt-ceiling outcomes. All resolutions use the official statistical release.

These markets are useful for anyone whose work or investments are exposed to macro data — from professional traders to small business owners trying to make rate-sensitive decisions. They aggregate the view of many participants into a single live probability, often updating in real time as a release goes live.