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How Kayxa Works

Kayxa is a prediction market platform where you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Instead of betting against a house, you trade shares with other users in an open, peer-to-peer market. Prices reflect the collective belief in the probability of an event occurring. The platform is non-custodial — all trades settle through smart contracts on Polygon.

Self-Custody

Kayxa operates on a non-custodial model. You maintain full control of your funds at all times.

You control your funds

Assets are held in your wallet, secured by your private key.

Smart contract enforcement

Trades execute automatically through audited smart contracts.

Full transparency

All trades and positions are recorded on-chain and publicly verifiable.

Trustless execution

Settlement happens automatically based on market resolution — no intermediary.

Keep your private key safe and never share it. If you lose it, you lose access to your funds.

Prices Are Probabilities

Every share on Kayxa is priced between $0.01 and $0.99. The price represents the market's belief in the probability of that outcome occurring.

If YES shares trade at $0.65, the market believes there is approximately a 65% chance the event will happen.

Collateral & Tokens

Kayxa uses USDC on Polygon as collateral. Every YES/NO pair is fully backed:

  • $1 USDC creates one YES share + one NO share
  • Winning shares are redeemable for $1.00
  • Losing shares are worth $0.00

Create an account and place your first trade in minutes

Step 1

Connect Your Wallet

Sign in with MetaMask, Coinbase IconWallet, or any EIP-1193 compatible wallet — or use email / Google. No forms, no waiting.

The app will prompt you to switch to the Polygon network. We cover all gas fees.

Step 2

Browse Markets

Explore markets on crypto prices, elections, sports, and more. Each market resolves to YES or NO.

Share prices range from $0.01 to $0.99. The price is the market's implied probability.

Step 3

Buy YES or NO Shares

Think something will happen? Buy YES. Think it won't? Buy NO. Your cost is the share price — payout is $1.00 if correct.

Place instant market orders or set a limit price. Sell any time to exit before resolution.

Step 4

Win If Correct

Winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Losing shares expire worthless.

Resolution uses an optimistic oracle. Your P&L is tracked live in your portfolio.

Trading

Kayxa uses a peer-to-peer order book for trading. You trade directly with other users, not against the house.

ActionWhen to useProfit scenario
Buy YESYou think the probability is too lowEvent occurs
Buy NOYou think the probability is too highEvent does not occur
SellLock in gains or limit lossesPrice moves in your favour

Profit Potential — Quick Example

A market asks: "Will BTC reach $200K by December?"

YES shares trade at $0.65 — the market thinks it is 65% likely.

You buy 10 YES shares for $6.50.

If BTC hits $200K: you receive $10.00 — profit of $3.50 (~54% return).

If not: your $6.50 is lost.

100x scenario: If YES shares trade at just $0.01 (market thinks only 1% chance), and the event actually occurs — your shares pay $1.00 each. That is a 100x return on your investment. Low-probability markets can deliver outsized payouts when the unlikely happens.

Resolution

When an event concludes, markets are resolved through an optimistic oracle:

  1. A proposer submits the outcome with a bond
  2. There is a challenge period where anyone can dispute
  3. If disputed, UMA token holders vote on the correct resolution
  4. Winning tokens become redeemable for $1 USDC

This community-driven process ensures fair and accurate market resolution.

Why Polygon

Global access

Anyone with an internet connection can participate.

Non-custodial

You control your funds — not a centralised entity.

Transparent

All activity is publicly verifiable on-chain.

Fast & affordable

Polygon enables quick, low-cost transactions.

Stable value

USDC is pegged 1:1 to the US dollar — no crypto volatility.

How Kayxa Prediction Markets Work

Kayxa is a decentralized prediction market platform built on Polygon blockchain. Each market is a binary YES/NO question about a real-world outcome. Traders buy YES shares if they think an event will happen or NO shares if they think it will not. Shares are priced between $0.01 and $0.99 and pay out $1.00 if correct or $0.00 if wrong. The current share price reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome based on collective trader activity.

Kayxa uses a constant-sum automated market maker (AMM) to price shares. When you buy YES shares, the YES price rises and the NO price falls. Markets start seeded at 50/50 by the Ghost Market Maker, which provides initial liquidity so you can always find a trade at a fair price. All trades are executed by the Kayxa admin wallet on-chain, so you never pay gas fees on Polygon. Your USDC balance is deducted when you buy and credited when you sell or win.

Crypto price markets (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB, HYPE, MSTR) resolve automatically using Chainlink oracle feeds on Polygon. A 15-minute market asks: will this asset finish above its opening price? The Chainlink price at window open is the strike price. If the final price is above, UP wins and YES shares pay $1.00. If below, DOWN wins. If prices are equal, the market voids and all traders receive a pro-rata refund. Resolution is fully on-chain and trustless.

Event markets covering politics, sports, technology, geopolitics, and culture are resolved by the Kayxa admin team using publicly verifiable sources such as AP, Reuters, official government bodies, and sports leagues. Each market specifies its resolution source before trading begins. Winning payouts are calculated as your share of the winning pool proportional to your winning share count. No KYC is required. Sign in with email or a Web3 wallet to deposit USDC and start trading prediction markets on Kayxa.