How Kayxa Works
Kayxa is a prediction market platform where you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Instead of betting against a house, you trade shares with other users in an open, peer-to-peer market. Prices reflect the collective belief in the probability of an event occurring. The platform is non-custodial — all trades settle through smart contracts on Polygon.
Self-Custody
Kayxa operates on a non-custodial model. You maintain full control of your funds at all times.
You control your funds
Assets are held in your wallet, secured by your private key.
Smart contract enforcement
Trades execute automatically through audited smart contracts.
Full transparency
All trades and positions are recorded on-chain and publicly verifiable.
Trustless execution
Settlement happens automatically based on market resolution — no intermediary.
Keep your private key safe and never share it. If you lose it, you lose access to your funds.
Prices Are Probabilities
Every share on Kayxa is priced between $0.01 and $0.99. The price represents the market's belief in the probability of that outcome occurring.
Collateral & Tokens
Kayxa uses USDC on Polygon as collateral. Every YES/NO pair is fully backed:
- $1 USDC creates one YES share + one NO share
- Winning shares are redeemable for $1.00
- Losing shares are worth $0.00
Create an account and place your first trade in minutes
Connect Your Wallet
Sign in with MetaMask, Coinbase IconWallet, or any EIP-1193 compatible wallet — or use email / Google. No forms, no waiting.
The app will prompt you to switch to the Polygon network. We cover all gas fees.
Browse Markets
Explore markets on crypto prices, elections, sports, and more. Each market resolves to YES or NO.
Share prices range from $0.01 to $0.99. The price is the market's implied probability.
Buy YES or NO Shares
Think something will happen? Buy YES. Think it won't? Buy NO. Your cost is the share price — payout is $1.00 if correct.
Place instant market orders or set a limit price. Sell any time to exit before resolution.
Win If Correct
Winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Losing shares expire worthless.
Resolution uses an optimistic oracle. Your P&L is tracked live in your portfolio.
Trading
Kayxa uses a peer-to-peer order book for trading. You trade directly with other users, not against the house.
| Action | When to use | Profit scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Buy YES | You think the probability is too low | Event occurs |
| Buy NO | You think the probability is too high | Event does not occur |
| Sell | Lock in gains or limit losses | Price moves in your favour |
Profit Potential — Quick Example
A market asks: "Will BTC reach $200K by December?"
YES shares trade at $0.65 — the market thinks it is 65% likely.
You buy 10 YES shares for $6.50.
If BTC hits $200K: you receive $10.00 — profit of $3.50 (~54% return).
If not: your $6.50 is lost.
100x scenario: If YES shares trade at just $0.01 (market thinks only 1% chance), and the event actually occurs — your shares pay $1.00 each. That is a 100x return on your investment. Low-probability markets can deliver outsized payouts when the unlikely happens.
Resolution
When an event concludes, markets are resolved through an optimistic oracle:
- A proposer submits the outcome with a bond
- There is a challenge period where anyone can dispute
- If disputed, UMA token holders vote on the correct resolution
- Winning tokens become redeemable for $1 USDC
This community-driven process ensures fair and accurate market resolution.
Why Polygon
Global access
Anyone with an internet connection can participate.
Non-custodial
You control your funds — not a centralised entity.
Transparent
All activity is publicly verifiable on-chain.
Fast & affordable
Polygon enables quick, low-cost transactions.
Stable value
USDC is pegged 1:1 to the US dollar — no crypto volatility.
How Kayxa Prediction Markets Work
Kayxa is a decentralized prediction market platform built on Polygon blockchain. Each market is a binary YES/NO question about a real-world outcome. Traders buy YES shares if they think an event will happen or NO shares if they think it will not. Shares are priced between $0.01 and $0.99 and pay out $1.00 if correct or $0.00 if wrong. The current share price reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome based on collective trader activity.
Kayxa uses a constant-sum automated market maker (AMM) to price shares. When you buy YES shares, the YES price rises and the NO price falls. Markets start seeded at 50/50 by the Ghost Market Maker, which provides initial liquidity so you can always find a trade at a fair price. All trades are executed by the Kayxa admin wallet on-chain, so you never pay gas fees on Polygon. Your USDC balance is deducted when you buy and credited when you sell or win.
Crypto price markets (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB, HYPE, MSTR) resolve automatically using Chainlink oracle feeds on Polygon. A 15-minute market asks: will this asset finish above its opening price? The Chainlink price at window open is the strike price. If the final price is above, UP wins and YES shares pay $1.00. If below, DOWN wins. If prices are equal, the market voids and all traders receive a pro-rata refund. Resolution is fully on-chain and trustless.
Event markets covering politics, sports, technology, geopolitics, and culture are resolved by the Kayxa admin team using publicly verifiable sources such as AP, Reuters, official government bodies, and sports leagues. Each market specifies its resolution source before trading begins. Winning payouts are calculated as your share of the winning pool proportional to your winning share count. No KYC is required. Sign in with email or a Web3 wallet to deposit USDC and start trading prediction markets on Kayxa.